The latest theory I have come across is one that ties in with another contemporary concern, that of a change in the weather pattern, and the dire effect that can have in an agrarian economy. The researchers attribute the change in the global weather pattern to an otherwise unrecorded volcanic eruption in 1345 somewhere in the equatorial belt and the consequent effect of the ash cloud on the levels of sunshine reaching the earth, with colder wetter conditions resulting. These are indicated both by archival material and physical data such as tree ring formation and ash deposits in the Polar ice caps.
The link to the introduction of the Black Death into Italy was the search by merchants and sailors for grain supplies from farther afield in western Asia, and the accidental transfer of plague infected fleas to Europe.
The theory appears plausible and we know that more recent volcanic explosions have affected the global climate by reducing the sun’s rays as in the 1815 Tambora eruption in the Dutch East Indies, as described in the Wikipedia article Year_Without_a_Summer
This latest research is outlined in a BBC News report which can be seen at Volcanic eruption may have triggered Europe's Black Death plague
It is also covered in a LifeScience article which may be found at Volcanic eruption triggered 'butterfly effect' that led to the Black Death, researchers find
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